The Predictable Mr. Trump: Clear Goals, No Plan

Post 123 - Illogical Nation No. 16

Today’s edition of Looking For America has been difficult to write. In it, I claim that the fix America finds itself in today was predictable because our president is predictable. His goals and tactics have been clear since he came down his golden escalator in 2015 to tell America what he would do to us if elected, despite having no plan or strategy to get there. Trump always doubles down on his goals and tactics, even though he is a TACO when it comes to exactly how he pursues them.

Making this claim is difficult because, although there is a part of me that would enjoy seeing MAGAs held fully responsible for Trump’s war crimes and other acts that have hurt or killed people, the purpose of this piece is not to blame but to raise awareness.

As partially explained in this episode, Trump is giving America exactly what he promised, causing me to wonder if people who are suddenly claiming “This is not what I voted for” are being honest, or if they really got duped. I hope that if Trump voters become aware that this is what they voted for, because maybe, just maybe, in the future, we can automatically disqualify any candidate for any leadership position that has done any one of the thousands of things Trump has done that should have automatically disqualified him. I’ll have a lot to say about automatic disqualification in the future.

As I write, we are at war with Iran, and oil prices are surging. Gas, diesel, and jet fuel are up bigly. The stock market is tanking. And we may be at the very beginning of Trump Recession 2.

I maintain that this was all predictable. In fact, I suggested in the first week of Trump’s war that the U.S. or Israel would bomb Iran’s oil infrastructure, and I got a lot of blowback for saying so. “Why would they bomb oil refineries? That would make the price of oil go up?” Today, that suggestion no longer seems far-fetched.

My two friends, Douglass Umi (The Octogenarian Curmudgeon) and Teddy Kerwin (the Un-psychic), met up with me at my satellite office, the Ellinikon Café in Highland Park, New Jersey, to discuss my recent post, “Is This Really NOT What MAGA Voted For?” The conversation was too big to fit in this small column. So, I focus today on only one small sliver of it - The U.S., Israeli War on Iran.

Douglass is proud to call himself a grump. Teddy has been exceedingly good at predicting future situations and has even been called “psychic,” a term he disdains being called.

Spook: You two agree on a lot, but one big point of difference is how culpable to hold MAGAs.

Douglass (the curmudgeon): They should all be held 100% responsible. They knew what they were voting for.

Teddy (the Un-Psychic): I look at it differently. We need as many citizens as possible to stand against what’s going on. Alienating whole sectors of society is counterproductive. I’d rather give your average Trump voter the benefit of the doubt and suggest that some MAGAs really didn’t see this coming and voted for it because they are holding faulty assumptions.

FAULTY ASSUMPTIONS

Spook: I have a story about faulty assumptions.

When I was studying at attending Rutgers University, in a graduate level math class, as an exercise in logic, the professor proved that ½ is the smallest number. That is obviously absurd because ¼ is smaller than that, so there must have been some flaw in our proof, and we students were given the assignment of finding it.

So, we scoured the axioms, theorems, and logical deductions. Where on Earth did we go astray? About fifteen minutes and several clumps of hair on the floor later, the professor spilled the beans.

You see, when the professor, being a man of authority, suggested he could prove ½ was the smallest number, nobody questioned the premise that his proof relied on. But, in order to prove that ½ is the smallest number, you must first assume that there IS a smallest number. However, as we all know, there is no smallest number. No matter what number you choose, you can always divide it by 2 and get a smaller result. Our flaw was that we started with a faulty assumption. That led to an absurd result.

QUESTIONABLE PREMISES

Teddy: I think the same happens with many Trump voters. They worship Trump’s perceived authority, accept him at face value, and fail to examine the premises of his goals.

Spook: Can you explain that while examining your 2024 prediction that if Trump were re-elected, body bags would be coming home from Mexico?

Teddy: That prediction has been right in all aspects except where. It rests upon the premises that Trump:

1. Engage our troops in military combat – done.
2. Engage in military action in the Western Hemisphere – done (Venezuela)
3. Take military action in an oil-producing country – done (Venezuela and Iran)
4. Lose service members as a result – done

Spook: Why Iran instead?

Teddy: Unfortunately, we don’t know if it’s instead of or in addition to. War was predictable because of who Trump is at his core, plus his goals and tactics.

Let’s start with the assumption that Trump values human life. Does he? In 2020, he expressed a desire to “shoot protesters.” It might take a psychic to predict exactly in which city this shooting would be done. Chicago would have been a good guess. Maybe New York? Remember, Trump boasted in 2016 about shooting people in New York City.

Douglass: Maybe Trump hasn’t gone to New York yet because he saw the scene in Casablanca, where Rick Blaine tells Major Strasser, “There are certain sections of New York, Major, that I wouldn’t advise you to try to invade.”

Teddy: I would not have predicted Minneapolis. But we do know Trump was lusting to shoot protesters. Somewhere. Also, remember when he told the Proud Boys to “stand down and stand by?” Then, when he challenged the election results and Proud Boys were among the MAGAs that stormed the Capital and people died, he called it a day of love.

Psychologists all over America believe Trump is pathologically incapable of feeling empathy. He himself has called empathy a weakness. None of this was hidden from us, and yet we were re-elected him in 2024.

Douglass: MAGA elected him! They can shout as much as they want, but the fact remains. Trump wanted protesters shot and federal officers shot (and killed) protesters. Trump took military action in America first. Then he started in on Venezuela, and now Iran.

Spook: Which brings us to the question, Why target oil-producing countries?

THE LUST TO DOMINANCE

Teddy: For a very clear, logical and predictable reason. One of Trump’s central goals, which he has consistently and predictably pursued, is “Energy Dominance.” It’s important to look at the word “dominance.” It can mean one thing to the business community or in sports and something totally different in a testocracy or to a convicted sex offender.

Spook: That could sound a little harsh.

Teddy: Reality is harsh. And my goal here is not to cast blame. But Trump voters failed to recognize the danger that was apparent when he “stalked” Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential Debates, and when he speaks about women – calling them stupid and nasty, claiming he can grab their private parts, and hinting that he’d like to %(*#%^ date his own daughter. That should creep out every American. Each one of these should have been an automatic disqualifier.

Spook: I look forward to writing about “automatic disqualifiers.”

Teddy: Non-MAGA Trump voters let those things slide. Even worse, I hate to suggest, I think MAGAs loved them.

Douglass: Wait until Trump throws them under the bus. You know they will get it last or get it worst.

Teddy: But once you turn your face and ignore Trump’s predatory behavior, you enable him to do what he did in Minneapolis and what he’s doing now in Venezuela and Iran, and as Doug suggested, could end up doing to MAGAs before this whole thing is over, if he feels they betray him. If he feels they are no longer loyal to him.

Trump’s been very clear about how he feels about “foreigners,” especially Venezuelans, how he feels about immigrants, and how he feels about people who are not loyal to him. He uses his unchecked power to “dominate” them. Power he has only because the GOP Congress and the Roberts Court grant it to him.

Spook: Connect the Venezuela and Iran Wars.

Teddy: In 2016, Trump promised “energy dominance” by “reviving” the oil, gas and coal industries. That should be another automatic disqualifier if you examine the premises of this goal. First, under Obama, America already became the world’s largest producer of energy. So, these industries didn’t need “reviving.”

Second, to keep these industries “dominant” you needed to declare war on their biggest competition - “green energy.” Solar and wind energy have been getting cheaper and cheaper, while oil exploitation has gotten more complicated and environmentally hazardous.

So, in order to fulfil his campaign promises, Trump had to cancel solar and wind projects that would have powered millions of homes! The problem is, you can’t stop solar and wind altogether. While Reagan, the Bushes, and Trump 1 diverted resources away from solar (and EV) production, China and other countries went all in. Today, China “dominates” (in the business sense) the solar energy (and EV) industry. Yet, more and more Americans, when given the chance, are going solar (and for EVs). This decreases the demand for oil. That, in turn, caused the low oil prices we saw up until Trump started bombing civilian fishing boats in the Caribbean.

Spook: And that was predictable?

Teddy: Suppose a president with Trump’s character promised to revive the horse and buggy industry in the early 1900’s. It would have been predictable that he demonized cars, sabotaged roads, cut funding for automotive research, and so on. And it would also be predictable that he would fail to revive the horse and buggy industry.

As much of a “TACO” as Trump is, the things he chickens out on are his strategies. His goals and tactics remain the same.

Spook: Give us an example.

Teddy: Tariffs. Trump has imposed, backed off, re-imposed, and re-backed off tariffs. His strategy keeps changing, but his goal remains the same - to dominate other countries by holding economically punitive policies over them. And the tactics remain the same. Call them cheats, crooks, ungrateful, and even enemies. Pervert the meaning of existing laws in order to justify illegal policies, and when thwarted by the courts, find a different law to pervert and impose slightly different tariffs.

Same thing with oil. The goal remains the same – “energy dominance.” So he attacks solar and wind projects. That was predictable. After all, he campaigned promising to attack solar and wind energy. But solar and wind continue to grow, which thwarts his goal. So, he finds a different form of competition to attack – other oil-producing nations. The tactics are the same. Call those nations cheats (“Iran cheated on uranium production”), crooks (“Venezuela stole our oil”), ungrateful (“We’ve done a lot for Venezuela” “We’ve done a lot for Iran.”), and enemies. Then attack them. It’s really quite simple.

Spook: But how does attacking Venezuela lead to U.S. energy dominance?

Teddy: Simple, Trump said twenty years ago that if America won a war against an oil-producing country, we should take their oil. That, too, should have been an automatic disqualifier. Don’t be surprised if Trump at least tries to take control of Iranian oil or the Strait of Hormuz.

Spook: Yes. And we have, in theory, already taken over Venezuela’s oil. But American oil companies said just 2 months ago that it’s not economically feasible to produce Venezuelan oil as long as oil goes for only $55 or $60 a barrel.

Teddy: And surprise. Surprise! Within only a few months, the price of a barrel of oil has almost doubled. Who could have predicted that? … Oh, I know. Anybody who is paying the proper attention.

Keep the Flame Alive!

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